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    承受重壓的俄羅斯經濟

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    Finance & economics

    財經板塊

    Russia's economy: bearing up

    俄羅斯經濟:承受重壓

    Why Russia is on track for a record trade surplus?

    為什么俄羅斯即將實現創紀錄的貿易順差?

    Within days of Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s financial system seemed on the verge of collapse.

    在弗拉基米爾·普京入侵烏克蘭的幾天之內,俄羅斯的金融體系似乎就處于崩潰的邊緣。

    The West imposed a range of financial sanctions, notably on the Russian central bank’s foreign-exchange reserves, that sent the rouble plunging and led citizens to withdraw cash frantically.

    西方國家對俄羅斯實施了一系列金融制裁,特別是對俄羅斯央行的外匯儲備實施制裁,導致盧布暴跌,民眾瘋狂地提取現金。

    Then the central bank raised interest rates, imposed capital controls and injected liquidity into the banking system, and some of these misfortunes reversed.

    隨后,俄羅斯央行提高了利率,實施了資本管制,并增加了銀行體系的流動性,讓這種崩潰趨勢得到了部分逆轉。

    Although a chunk of Russia’s currency reserves remains frozen, the country still generates about $1bn a day from its energy exports.

    盡管俄羅斯的一大部分外匯儲備仍處于凍結狀態,但該國每天仍可通過能源出口創造約10億美元的收入。

    Russia has stopped publishing detailed monthly trade statistics. But figures from its trading partners can be used to work out what is going on.

    俄羅斯已停止公布詳細的月度貿易統計數據。但是,可以根據其貿易伙伴的數據來推斷俄羅斯目前的情況。

    They suggest that, as imports slide and exports hold up, Russia is running a record trade surplus.

    人們認為,隨著進口下滑而出口保持穩定,俄羅斯正在實現創紀錄的貿易順差。

    On May 9th China reported that its goods exports to Russia fell by over a quarter in April, compared with a year earlier, while its imports from Russia rose by more than 56%.

    5月9日,中國報告稱,與去年同期相比,4月份中國對俄羅斯的商品出口下降了四分之一以上,而從俄羅斯的進口上升了56%以上。

    Germany reported a 62% monthly drop in exports to Russia in March, and its imports fell by 3%.

    德國3月份對俄羅斯的出口下降了62%,進口下降了3%。

    Adding up such flows across eight of Russia’s biggest trading partners, we estimate that Russian imports have fallen by about 44% since the invasion of Ukraine, while its exports have risen by roughly 8%.

    根據俄羅斯與其最大的8個貿易伙伴的交易數據,我們估計,自入侵烏克蘭以來,俄羅斯的進口下降了約44%,而出口卻上升了約8%。

    Imports have collapsed partly because sanctions on the Russian central bank and the expulsion of some lenders from the swift interbank messaging network have made it harder for consumers and firms to buy Western goods.

    俄羅斯進口大幅下降的部分原因是其央行遭遇的制裁,以及俄方一些銀行被驅逐出快速的銀行間信息網絡,使得消費者和企業更難購買西方商品。

    Elina Ribakova of the Institute of International Finance (or iif), a bankers’ group, says that regulatory uncertainty was also a big factor at first, as Western firms were unsure which Russian banks came under sanctions.

    銀行家組織國際金融協會(iif)的依林娜·瑞巴科娃說,起初,監管的不確定性也是一個很大的因素,因為西方公司不確定哪些俄羅斯銀行會受到制裁。

    Logistical disruptions, including decisions by Western firms to suspend deliveries to Russia, mattered, too.

    物流中斷也很重要,包括西方公司決定暫停對俄羅斯的運輸。

    The early depreciation of the rouble also dampened Russian demand for imports, says Claus Vistesen of Pantheon Macroeconomics, a consultancy.

    萬神殿宏觀經濟咨詢公司的克勞斯·維斯特森表示,盧布的早期貶值也抑制了俄羅斯的進口需求。

    Russia’s exports, meanwhile, have held up surprisingly well, including those directed to the West. Sanctions permit the sale of oil and gas to most of the world to continue uninterrupted.

    與此同時,俄羅斯的出口出乎意料地保持良好,包括對西方的出口。西方的制裁允許俄羅斯的石油和天然氣繼續銷往世界大部分地區。

    And a spike in energy prices has boosted revenues further.

    能源價格的飆升進一步推動了俄方收入的增長。

    As a result, analysts expect Russia’s trade surplus to hit record highs in the coming months.

    因此,分析人士預計,俄羅斯的貿易順差將在未來幾個月創下歷史新高。

    The iif reckons that in 2022 the current-account surplus, which includes trade and some financial flows, could come in at $250bn (15% of last year’s gdp), more than double the $120bn recorded in 2021.

    國際金融研究所估計,到2022年,包括貿易和一些資金流動在內的經常賬戶盈余可能達到2500億美元(占去年gdp的15%),是2021年1200億美元的兩倍多。

    That sanctions have boosted Russia’s trade surplus, and thus helped finance the war, is disappointing, says Mr Vistesen.

    維斯特森說,制裁增加了俄羅斯的貿易順差,從而為戰爭提供了資金,這一點很令人失望。

    Ms Ribakova reckons that the efficacy of financial sanctions may have reached its limits.

    瑞巴科娃認為金融制裁的效果可能已經達到極限。

    A decision to tighten trade sanctions must come next.

    接下來必須做出加強貿易制裁的決定。

    But such measures could take time to take effect.

    但這些措施可能需要一段時間才能生效。

    Even if the EU enacts its proposal to ban Russian oil, the embargo would be phased in so slowly that the bloc’s oil imports from Russia would fall by just 19% this year, says Liam Peach of Capital Economics, a consultancy.

    咨詢公司凱投宏觀的利亞姆·皮奇表示,即使歐盟實施其禁止進口俄羅斯石油的提案,禁運也會逐步緩慢地實施,所以今年歐盟從俄羅斯進口的石油僅會下降19%。

    The full impact of these sanctions would be felt only at the start of 2023—by which point Mr Putin will have amassed billions to fund his war.

    這些制裁的全面影響要到2023年初才會顯現,到那時,普京將已積累數十億美元,為戰爭提供資金。

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