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Finance & economics
財經板塊
Oil Prices: Crude calculations
油價：粗略計算
Why oil is spiking again?
油價為何又在飆升？
In the 1970s Arab states used the “oil weapon” of embargoes to punish Western governments for supporting Israel.
20世紀70年代，阿拉伯國家利用禁運這一“石油武器”來懲罰支持以色列的西方政府。
On May 30th the heads of the 27 eu member governments agreed to turn the weapon on themselves, as part of a fresh round of sanctions against Russia following its invasion of Ukraine.
5月30日，歐盟27個成員國的首腦同意將該武器對準自己，這是繼俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭后對俄羅斯新一輪制裁的一部分。
As well as cutting off Sberbank, Russia’s largest bank, from the swift cross-border payment system, the package will also ban purchases of Russian crude oil and refined products, such as diesel, by the end of the year.
除了將俄羅斯最大的銀行俄羅斯聯邦儲蓄銀行(Sberbank)排除在快速跨境支付系統之外，該制裁計劃還將在今年年底前禁止購買俄羅斯原油和柴油等成品油。
There would, the eu said, be a “temporary” exemption for oil delivered through pipelines.
歐盟表示，通過管道輸送的石油可以“暫時”豁免。
The price of a barrel of Brent crude leapt above $120 on the news, its highest level since March.
消息傳出后，布倫特(Brent)原油價格躍升至每桶120美元以上，為3月份以來的最高水平。
In principle, the decision is highly significant.
原則上，這個決定意義重大。
As well as demonstrating unity, and the bloc’s willingness to bear economic pain to punish Russia, it cuts one of the few remaining trade ties with the Kremlin.
它不僅表明了歐盟的團結，以及該組織愿意承受經濟上的痛苦來懲罰俄羅斯，它還切斷了與俄羅斯僅剩的貿易聯系之一。
It also imperils one of Russia’s most lucrative sources of foreign-currency earnings.
它還危及俄羅斯最賺錢的外匯收入來源之一。
The eu is Russia’s biggest market for crude, buying about half the country’s oil exports.
歐盟是俄羅斯最大的原油市場，購買量占據該國大約一半的石油出口量。
There are reasons, however, to be sceptical that the move will deprive the Kremlin of much foreign currency.
然而，我們有理由懷疑此舉是否會讓俄羅斯失去大量外匯。
For a start, the ban only applies to seaborne oil, transported via tankers.
首先，這項禁令只適用于通過油輪運輸的海運石油。
That is the price of unity: excluding oil delivered by pipelines was necessary to find a compromise with Hungary, which is both more sympathetic to Russia than most eu countries and critically dependent on the Soviet-era Druzhba pipeline (a name meaning “friendship” in Russian).
這就是團結的代價：將通過管道運輸的石油排除在外是為了與匈牙利達成和解，匈牙利比大多數歐盟國家更支持俄羅斯，而且嚴重依賴蘇聯時期的“德魯日巴”管道(在俄語中是“友誼”的意思)。
Hungary imports about 65% of its crude from Russia.
匈牙利大約65%的原油從俄羅斯進口。
Seaborne oil makes up a similar share of Europe’s imports from Russia.
海運石油在歐洲從俄羅斯進口的石油中所占的份額也差不多。
But the ban is likely to have a limited impact on the oil market.
但該禁令對石油市場的影響可能有限。
Many tankers are already subject to “self-sanctioning” in parts of the West.
在西方部分地區，許多油輪已經受到“自我制裁”。
Dockworkers have refused to unload ships carrying Russian cargoes and oil majors have been worried about the hit to their reputations from accepting shipments.
碼頭工人拒絕為裝載俄羅斯貨物的船只卸貨，石油巨頭擔心接受貨物會損害他們的聲譽。
Western financiers are stepping back from writing insurance contracts.
西方金融家正逐步退出保險合同。
Insurers based in Russia’s allies could partly replace them, but have shallower pockets.
以俄羅斯的盟友為基地的保險公司可以在一定程度上取代它們，但卻資金不足。
A big question is whether Russian seaborne crude, once placed under sanctions, will go unsold.
一個大問題是，一旦受到制裁，俄羅斯海運原油是否會賣不出去。
So far Russia’s oil exports have risen even as the country has come under sanctions.
到目前為止，盡管俄羅斯受到制裁，但該國的石油出口仍在增長。
According to analysts at JPMorgan Chase, a bank, much of the increase has gone to India, which has not issued sanctions of its own.
據摩根大通銀行的分析師稱，大部分增加的出口量流向了印度，而印度還沒有發布自己的制裁措施。
Another question is whether Europe does eventually ban piped Russian oil, which is harder to redirect to other countries.
另一個問題是，歐洲最終是否會禁止通過管道輸送俄羅斯石油，因為這些石油更難轉向至其他國家。
Poland and Germany have said they will cease importing via the Druzhba pipeline.
波蘭和德國表示，他們將停止通過德魯日巴管道進口石油。
Yet it is hard to imagine Hungary’s dropping its opposition to a wider ban.
然而很難想象匈牙利會接受更廣泛的禁令。
Viktor Orban, the country’s populist prime minister, has demonstrated his willingness to block eu decisions before.
該國的民粹主義總理維克托·歐爾班此前就曾表現出阻止歐盟決定的意愿。
Thanks to a hefty discount on Russian crude--the Urals benchmark is trading significantly below Brent--mol, a Hungarian oil group, reports “skyrocketing” margins.
由于俄羅斯原油價格的大幅折扣——烏拉爾基準原油的價格遠低于布倫特原油——匈牙利石油集團mol報告稱，其利潤率“暴漲”。
Partial though the embargo may be, such is the tightness of the oil market that prices still surged.
盡管禁運可能是部分原因，但由于石油市場的緊張，油價仍在飆升。
Demand for fuel is strong as the pandemic subsides and consumers start driving and flying again, and as governments try to shield voters from the impact of higher energy costs.
隨著疫情消退，消費者再次開始開車和坐飛機，政府也試圖保護選民免受能源成本上升的影響，目前燃料需求強勁。
China’s easing of coronavirus restrictions in recent days has also added to the thirst for oil.
中國最近幾天放松了對新冠病毒的限制，也增加了對石油的需求。
The prices of industrial metals, including iron ore and copper, have rallied, too.
包括鐵礦石和銅在內的工業金屬價格也出現上漲。
Meanwhile, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (opec) and its allies, which include Russia, have shown little sign of increasing production just yet.
與此同時，石油輸出國組織(opec)及其包括俄羅斯在內的盟友尚未有增加產量的跡象。
The group was due to meet on June 2nd, as we went to press, and was not expected to depart from its plan to gradually increase supply to levels seen before the pandemic
該組織原定于6月2日召開會議，預計不會偏離其逐步增加石油供應至疫情前水平的計劃
(although prices dipped on reports that it was mulling a plan to exclude Russia from its production targets, allowing Saudi Arabia and others to pump more to make up for any lost output).
(雖然有報道稱，該組織正在考慮一項計劃，將俄羅斯排除在生產目標之外，允許沙特阿拉伯和其他國家增加產量，以彌補任何可能的減產)。
Tight supply and robust demand together translate into higher prices for consumers at the pump.
供應緊張和需求旺盛共同導致油價上漲。
To make matters worse, a shortage of refinery capacity in America has raised prices for petrol and diesel even further than the cost of crude.
更糟糕的是，美國煉油廠產能的短缺導致汽油和柴油價格的上漲幅度超過原油價格。
The surging dollar adds to costs for Europe and emerging markets, notes Francisco Blanch of Bank of America.
美國銀行的弗朗西斯科·布蘭奇指出，美元的飆升增加了歐洲和新興市場的成本。
None of this is welcome news in an already inflationary environment.
在已經出現通脹的環境下，這些都不是好消息。
According to figures published on May 31st inflation in the euro area rose to 8.1% in the year to May, higher than economists had expected.
根據5月31日公布的數據，截至5月，歐元區的通貨膨脹率上升至8.1%，高于經濟學家的預期。
The Arab embargoes of the 1970s caused short-term pain for the West, but also spurred a drive for fuel efficiency that ultimately reduced its reliance on oil.
20世紀70年代的阿拉伯禁運給西方帶來了短期的痛苦，但也刺激了提高燃料效率的行動，最終降低了對石油的依賴。
European governments today may find themselves hoping that the short-term pain for consumers similarly gives way to the long-term gain of energy security.
今天，歐洲各國政府可能會發現，他們希望消費者的短期痛苦也同樣會為能源安全的長期收益讓位。
