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財經板塊
Italy’s debt: Whenever it breaks
意大利的債務：無論何時爆發
How inflation and rising interest rates might affect Italy’s finances
通脹和利率上升可能會如何影響意大利的財政
Before the pandemic it was a cause for excitement among economists that the real interest rate governments paid on their debts had fallen below the rate of economic growth in most rich countries, allowing governments to spend more freely and worry less about running up debts.
政府為其債務支付的實際利率已降至大多數富裕國家的經濟增長率以下，使得政府支出更自由，并減少對債務積欠的擔憂，在疫情暴發前，這曾是令經濟學家感到興奮的一個原因。
But central banks’ battle with inflation today threatens to turn that relationship on its head, making the fiscal position of indebted governments more perilous.
但央行今天與通脹的斗爭可能會顛覆這種關系，使負債累累的政府的財政狀況更加危險。
When interest rates are below growth rates, governments can run primary budget deficits (that is, deficits before interest payments are taken into account) without the debt-to-GDP ratio necessarily rising.
當利率低于增長率時，政府可能會背負基本預算赤字(即不計利息支付的赤字)，而債務與國內生產總值的比率不一定會上升。
But when rates exceed economic growth, primary surpluses are the only way to keep indebtedness stable.
但當利率超過經濟增長時，基本盈余是保持債務穩定的唯一途徑。
The higher the starting debt, the more belt-tightening needed.
起始債務越高，越需要勒緊褲腰帶。
Fortunately, inflation reduces the real interest rate, and so most countries will gain a fiscal windfall this year.
幸運的是，通脹降低了實際利率，因此大多數國家今年將獲得一筆財政意外之財。
Some of their debt, in other words, will be inflated away.
換句話說，他們的部分債務將被通脹抵消。
But if central banks successfully bring inflation down, and if high interest rates endure, things could get more painful.
但如果各大央行成功地降低了通脹，如果高利率持續下去，情況可能會變得更加令人痛苦。
The picture looks especially worrying in Italy.
意大利的情況看起來尤其令人擔憂。
The euro zone’s third-largest economy had net public debt worth nearly 140% of GDP last year.
歐元區第三大經濟體去年的凈公共債務接近GDP的140%。
Its government currently pays about 3.5% to borrow for ten years.
其政府目前的10年期借款利率約為3.5%。
Precisely where Italy’s indebtedness and borrowing costs will settle after the energy crisis is uncertain.
能源危機過后，意大利的債務和借貸成本到底會在哪里解決還不確定。
We’ve been looking at a range of combinations for debt and financing costs, and what they would imply for the country’s budget were growth to match the average IMF forecast during 2022-27, and were inflation to fall to the European Central Bank’s target of 2%.
我們一直在研究債務和融資成本的一系列組合，以及如果2022-27年期間經濟增長與國際貨幣基金組織預測的平均水平持平，如果通貨膨脹率降至歐洲央行2%的目標，這些組合對該國預算將意味著什么。
In reality, the average tenor of outstanding Italian debt is nearly eight years, so it would take time for its average financing cost to rise.
事實上，意大利未償還債務的平均期限接近8年，因此其平均融資成本上升需要時間。
At financing costs of 3% or below, Italy can run small primary deficits and still outgrow its debt.
在融資成本為3%或更低的情況下，意大利可以維持小規模的基本赤字，同時上升速度仍能超過債務增長速度。
As interest rates rise, however, stability requires primary surpluses of 2% or more.
然而，隨著利率的上升，需要2%或更多的基本盈余才能保持穩定。
The only time Italy has run so tight a budget since the global financial crisis was in 2012, at the height of European austerity.
自全球金融危機以來，意大利唯一一次如此緊縮預算是在2012年，當時正值歐洲緊縮的高峰時期。
