評論
打印
Finance & economics
財經板塊
America’s inflation indices: The price of accuracy
美國的通脹指數:準確性的代價
The Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation is more benign but also more obscure
美聯儲的首選通脹指標更為溫和，但也更為模糊
The federal reserve’s “preferred measure of inflation” is a phrase that often crops up in reporting on the American economy.
在有關美國經濟的報道中，經常會出現一個短語，那就是美聯儲的“首選通脹指標”。
It stands in for a verbose official name: the personal-consumption-expenditures price index (PCEPI).
它代指一個冗長的官方名稱：個人消費支出價格指數(PCEPI)。
Most discussion of inflation, however, focuses on its better-known and pithier relative, the consumer-price index (CPI).
然而，大多數關于通貨膨脹的討論都集中在更廣為人知、更簡明的相關數據上，即消費者價格指數(CPI)。
That usually does not matter much.
通常情況下，這一點無關緊要。
But the gap between CPI and PCEPI has recently widened, hitting 2 percentage points in April, the largest divergence since 1981.
但CPI和PCEPI之間的差距最近有所擴大，4月份時達到了2個百分點，這是1981年以來的最大差距。
So while headlines blare out that CPI inflation is running at more than 8% annually, it is just over 6% in the PCEPI world.
因此，當新聞頭條大肆宣揚CPI年通脹率超過8%時，PCEPI年通脹率僅略高于6%。
To be sure, the lower PCEPI figure is not cause for celebration.
可以肯定的是，較低的PCEPI數據并不值得慶祝。
Just like CPI, it is also at a four-decade high.
與CPI一樣，它也處于40年來的最高水平。
But it is nonetheless instructive to consider why the gap has grown so wide.
但盡管如此，思考一下為什么差距會變得如此之大，仍然是有啟發意義的。
The simple explanation is weighting.
簡單的解釋是加權。
Housing, for instance, is 33% of CPI but just 16% of PCEPI.
例如，住房占CPI的33%，但僅占PCEPI的16%。
Petrol also has a slightly higher share in CPI.
汽油在CPI中的占比也略高一些。
The PCEPI gauge is broader, encompassing things purchased on behalf of consumers (such as medical care, even if paid for by the government or an employer).
PCEPI指標范圍更廣，涵蓋代表消費者購買的物品(如醫療保健，即使是由政府或雇主支付的也包括在內)。
When rents and oil prices soar, CPI inflation tends to outstrip PCEPI inflation.
當租金和油價飆升時，CPI通脹率往往會超過PCEPI通脹率。
The Fed prefers PCEPI because it reflects how money is actually spent.
美聯儲更喜歡PCEPI，因為它反映了資金的實際使用情況。
If people stop buying expensive cars and spend more on bus tickets, that shift shows up in PCEPI; CPI, by contrast, just registers the higher car prices.
如果人們停止購買昂貴的汽車，在公交車票上花更多錢，這種轉變就會在PCEPI中顯示出來；相比之下，CPI只會顯示汽車價格上漲。
“CPI doesn’t allow for immediate substitution, which exacerbates the divergence,” says Julie Smith of Lafayette College.
“CPI不會將即時的置換計算在內，這就會導致差距擴大，”拉斐特學院的朱莉·史密斯說。
In theory that might tempt the Fed to highlight PCEPI now.
從理論上講，這可能會誘使美聯儲現在強調PCEPI。
The latest figures will due out on June 30th, as we went to press.
最新的數據將于我們交付印刷時，即6月30日公布。
Core PCEPI (excluding food and energy) has expected to have risen by 0.4% in May, compared with April, slower than the 0.6% jump in CPI.
5月份核心PCEPI(不包括食品和能源)預計較4月份上漲0.4%，低于CPI 0.6%的漲幅。
But Jerome Powell, the Fed’s chairman, instead highlighted CPI when explaining the central bank’s jumbo interest-rate rise on June 15th.
但美聯儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾在解釋央行6月15日大幅加息的原因時，反而強調了CPI。
Partly that is because CPI was published just before its decision.
這在一定程度上是因為CPI是在其決定之前發布的。
The fact that CPI is more widely discussed, even if less accurate, also recommends it.
即使CPI準確性較低，但它能得到更廣泛的討論，這也是一個原因。
The central bank’s concern is that inflation expectations are becoming unmoored.
央行擔心的是，通脹預期正在失控。
If people pay more attention to CPI, the Fed will feel obliged to do so too.
如果人們更加關注CPI，美聯儲也會覺得有義務這樣做。
