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Finance & economics
財經板塊
Buttonwood: Wake-up call
梧桐樹：警鐘
The once-benevolent Fed now looks vengeful for markets
曾經仁慈的美聯儲現在似乎要報復市場
When stocks boomed early in the pandemic, an internet meme captured the madness of the moment.
疫情初期股市大漲，一張網絡表情包捕捉到了那一刻的瘋狂。
On the left-hand side of the image, a worried man exclaims that simply creating money cannot save the economy; on the right, a man representing the Federal Reserve replies “Haha money printer go brrr” while cranking out dollars.
在圖片的左邊，一個憂心忡忡的人驚呼道，僅靠造錢并不能拯救經濟；在右邊，一名代表美聯儲的男子一邊大量印鈔，一邊回答道：“哈哈，印鈔機開動”。
Joseph Politano, author of Apricitas, an economics newsletter, recently tweaked the meme to better fit the present situation.
經濟學時事通訊《Apritas》的作者約瑟夫·波利塔諾最近稍稍改動了這張圖，使其更符合當前的形勢。
On the left, the worried man laments that excessive monetary tightening is increasing the risk of a recession; to the right, the Fed representative retorts “Haha money vacuum go brrr”, while hoovering up dollars.
圖片左邊，那位憂心忡忡的人哀嘆，過度的貨幣緊縮正在增加經濟衰退的風險；右邊，代表美聯儲的人一邊吸走美元，一邊回嘴：“哈哈，吸鈔器開動?！?/p>
In more analytical, if less humorous, terms, another way of framing this shift is to ask whether the Fed put has become a Fed call.
如果正經一點，從更具分析性的角度來看，另一種描述這種轉變的方式是：問一問美聯儲的看跌期權是否已經變為美聯儲看漲期權。
The concept of a Fed put dates back to the era of Alan Greenspan, a former chairman of the central bank.
美聯儲看跌期權的概念可以追溯到美聯儲前主席艾倫·格林斯潘的時代。
Starting with the stockmarket crash in 1987 and continuing for more than three decades, the Fed earned a reputation for easing policy, notably by cutting interest rates, whenever share prices plunged.
1987年股市崩盤后的30多年里，美聯儲以實施寬松政策而聞名，尤其是股價一暴跌就實施的降息政策。
To traders this looks a bit like a put option, a basic hedging tool that sets a price floor for investments.
對于交易員來說，這看起來有點像看跌期權，這是一種為投資設定價格下限的基本對沖工具。
A Fed call would imply just the opposite: namely, that the central bank is in effect capping the market (similar to traders who sell call options on their stock holdings).
美聯儲看漲期權正相反，意味著：央行實際上為市場價格設定上限(類似于交易員出售所持股票的看漲期權)。
Steve Englander of Standard Chartered, a bank, laid out this provocative idea in a recent note to clients: “The Fed may push back against equity market gains until it is comfortable that disinflation is a lock—in other words, [there is] a Fed call.”
渣打銀行的史蒂夫·英格蘭德在最近給客戶的一份報告中闡述了這一引人深思的想法：“在美聯儲確信通貨緊縮已成定局之前，它可能會一直打壓市場收益--換句話說，美聯儲看漲期權已經到來?！?/p>
This argument may, at first glance, seem rather crude.
乍一看，這種說法可能顯得有些不成熟。
The Fed has long denied that it targets asset prices in setting monetary policy.
長期以來，美聯儲一直否認其在制定貨幣政策時有意影響資產價格。
Narrowly, its denials are credible.
它的否認勉強還算可信。
Central bankers look at oodles of data, from real-time growth figures to surveys of inflation expectations.
央行官員們要看大量數據，從實時增長數據到通脹預期調查的數據。
They cannot afford to be swayed by swings in stocks.
他們承受不起股市波動的影響。
Moreover, share prices reflect many factors ranging from the overall economic outlook to corporate idiosyncrasies.
此外，股價能反映許多因素，大到整體經濟前景，小到企業特質。
Why would the Fed target something that is so volatile and only partially responsive to its actions?
股價波動如此之大，美聯儲針對股價采取的措施也并非全部有效，美聯儲為什么要影響股價呢？
