In a broader sense, however, the stockmarket clearly matters to the Fed.
然而,從更廣泛的意義上講,股市顯然對美聯儲很重要。
Jerome Powell, its current chairman, has repeatedly said that its policies are transmitted to the real economy through financial conditions—a term that refers to the availability and cost of funding for businesses and consumers.
美聯儲現任主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾一再表示,美聯儲的政策是通過金融形勢傳遞至實體經濟的。金融形勢指的是企業和消費者獲得資金的可能性和成本。
Stockmarkets play a crucial role in both shaping and gauging financial conditions.
股票市場在塑造和衡量金融形勢方面都發揮著至關重要的作用。
Admittedly, they play a small part in a formal sense: for instance, in one index of financial conditions created by the Fed’s Chicago branch, equity and other asset markets account for just ten of its 105 separate inputs, contrasting with the bigger weights assigned to credit markets.
誠然,從形式來看,股市只起到了很小的作用:例如,在美聯儲芝加哥分行編制的一個金融形勢指數中,股票和其他資產市場在其105個獨立輸入項中只占10個,相比之下,信貸市場的權重更大。
But stocks reflect these other metrics.
但股票能反映其他指標。
This is especially true at times of stress.
在困難時期尤其如此。
Share prices have fallen this year as indices of financial conditions have tightened, and they have risen when these indices have eased.
今年,隨著金融形勢指數收緊,股價有所下跌,而當指數寬松時,股價又有所上漲。
Concerns about inflation only add to the market’s importance.
對通脹的擔憂只會更加凸顯股市的重要性。
When share prices rise, consumers, feeling flush, tend to spend more money and companies, feeling confident, tend to hire more workers.
當股價上漲時,消費者感到富裕,往往會花更多的錢,而公司會感到自信,往往會雇傭更多員工。
A paper in 2019 by Gabriel Chodorow-Reich of Harvard University and colleagues concluded that each dollar of increased stockmarket wealth lifted consumer spending by about three cents annually, while also boosting employment and wages.
哈佛大學的加布里埃爾·喬多羅-瑞奇及其同事在2019年的一篇論文中得出結論,股市市值每上漲一美元,就會使消費者的支出每年增加約3美分,同時促進就業和工資上漲。
For a central bank fighting inflation, a large rise in share prices would therefore cut against its efforts.
因此,對于抗擊通脹的美聯儲來說,股價大幅上漲會讓其事倍功半。
This makes for borderline hypocrisy in Fedspeak.
這使得美聯儲的言論近乎虛偽。
Sober central bankers can explain that they want “appropriate firming of monetary policy and associated tighter financial conditions” to help rectify the supply-and-demand imbalances that are fuelling inflation (as the Fed did indeed say in the minutes of its rate-setting meeting in June).
清醒的央行官員可以解釋說,他們希望“適當緊縮的貨幣政策和相關的收緊的金融形勢”能夠幫助扭轉推高通脹的供需失衡(正如美聯儲在6月份的議息會議紀要中所說的那樣)。
Yet it would be beyond the pale for them to declare that they want “appropriate firming of monetary policy and associated weakness in the stockmarket”—even if their meanings are closely aligned.
但是,如果他們宣稱想要“適當緊縮的貨幣政策和相關的疲軟的股市”就過分了,即使這兩種說法幾乎是一個意思。
In a market crash that impairs the financial system, the Fed put would come back into focus.
如果損害金融體系的市場崩盤爆發,美聯儲看跌期權將重新成為焦點。
For now, though, the sell-off has been mostly orderly.
不過,就目前而言,拋售基本上是有序進行的。
A sustained rebound in stocks would be unwelcome for the Fed, and might well tilt it towards more hawkishness.
股市持續反彈不會受美聯儲待見,還有可能會促使美聯儲更加鷹派。
Investors accustomed to viewing the central bank as a friendly force must instead confront the harsh reality of a Fed call.
習慣于將美聯儲視為友軍的投資者,不得不面對美聯儲看漲期權的殘酷現實。