評論
打印
Finance & economics
財經板塊
Buttonwood: Recurring nightmares
梧桐樹：噩夢重現
How should investors prepare for repeat inflation shocks?
投資者應該如何應對反復出現的通脹沖擊?
Buy stocks so you can dream, buy bonds so you can sleep—or so the saying goes.
俗話說，買股票是為了做夢，買債券是為了睡覺。
A wise investor will aim to maximise their returns relative to risk, defined as volatility in the rate of return, and therefore hold some investments that will do well in good times and some in bad.
明智的投資者會致力于最大化其相對于風險的回報(即回報率的波動性)，因此他們持有的投資既有在景氣時期表現良好的，也有在不景氣時期也會表現良好的。
Stocks surge when the economy soars; bonds climb during a crisis.
經濟騰飛時，股市會暴漲；而在危機期間，債券會攀升。
A mix of the two—often 60% stocks and 40% bonds—should help investors earn a nice return, without too much risk.
這兩者的組合--比例通常是60%的股票和40%的債券--應該會幫助投資者在沒有太大風險的情況下獲得不錯的回報。
Such a mix has been a sensible strategy for much of the past two decades.
在過去20年的大部分時間里，這樣的組合一直是一種明智的策略。
Since 2000 the average correlation between American stocks and Treasuries has been staunchly negative, at -0.5.
自2000年以來，美國股票和國債之間一直是負相關，平均值為-0.5。
But the recent rout in both stock and bond prices has wrong-footed investors.
但最近股票和債券價格的暴跌讓投資者措手不及。
In the first half of the year the S&P 500 shed 20.6% and an aggregate measure of the price of Treasuries lost 8.6%.
今年上半年，標準普爾500指數下跌了20.6%，衡量美國國債價格的一個綜合指標下跌了8.6%。
Is this an aberration or the new normal?
這是一種反?，F象還是新常態？
The answer depends on whether higher inflation is here to stay.
答案取決于較高的通脹是否會持續下去。
When economic growth drives asset prices, stocks and bonds diverge.
當推動資產價格的是經濟增長時，股票和債券就會出現分化。
When inflation drives them, stocks and bonds often move in tandem.
而當推動它們的是通脹時，股票和債券往往會同步變動。
On August 10th American inflation data showed prices did not rise in July.
8月10日，美國通脹數據顯示，7月份物價并未上漲。
Stocks soared—the S&P 500 rose by 2.1%—and short-term Treasury prices climbed, too.
股市暴漲了--標準普爾500指數上漲了2.1%--短期國債價格也有所攀升。
For as long as central bankers kept a lid on inflation, investors were protected.
只要央行官員控制住了通脹，投資者就能受到保護。
Yet look back before 2000, to a period when inflation was more common, and you see that stocks and bonds frequently moved in the same direction.
然而，回顧2000年前通脹發生頻率更高的時期，你會發現股票和債券的走勢經常是一致的。
AQR Capital Management, an investment firm, notes that in the 20th century the correlation between stocks and bonds was more often positive than negative.
投資公司AQR資本管理公司指出，在20世紀，股票和債券之間往往為正相關。
Lots of hedge-fund types, pension-fund managers and private-equity barons are therefore worrying about the potential for repeat inflation shocks.
因此，許多對沖基金公司、養老基金經理和私募股權大亨都在擔心可能會反復發生通脹沖擊。
Last year the debate in the halls of finance was about whether inflation would be “transitory” or “persistent”; this year it is about whether it is “cyclical” or “structural”.
去年，金融大廳里的人都在辯論通脹是“暫時性的”還是“持續性的”；今年則在辯論它是“周期性的”還是“結構性的”。
At the heart of this is not whether central bankers can bring down prices, but whether the underlying inflation dynamic has changed.
問題的核心不是央行官員能否壓低價格，而是潛在的通脹動態是否發生了變化。
Those in the “structural” camp argue that the recent period of low inflation was an accident of history—helped by relatively calm energy markets, globalisation and Chinese demographics, which pushed down goods prices by lowering the cost of labour.
“結構性”陣營的人辯稱，近期的低通脹是歷史的意外--這得益于較為平靜的能源市場、全球化和中國的人口結構，后者通過降低勞動力成本壓低了商品價格。
