評論
打印
Finance & economics
財經板塊
Free exchange: Everyone has a price
自由交流：人人都得付出代價
Economists have changed their mind
經濟學家已經改變了想法
High energy costs really due reduce use
能源價格高到真的應該減少能源消耗了
Across Europe, two questions will set the political weather this winter.
整個歐洲今年冬天的政治形勢將由以下兩個問題決定。
How high will my energy prices go?
能源價格會漲到多高？
And what will the government do to protect me?
政府會采取什么保護措施？
Attempting to shelter from the gathering storm, French and Spanish politicians, among others, have already capped or otherwise lowered gas and electricity prices.
為了躲避這場即將到來的風暴，法國和西班牙等國的政界人士已經設定了天然氣和電力價格的上限，或以其他方式降低了價格。
With wholesale gas futures for early 2023 still climbing—up to more than ?300 ($299) per MWh, from less than ?30 last summer—and Europe’s economic indicators blinking red, more will follow suit.
由于2023年初的天然氣批發期貨價格仍在攀升--從去年夏天的每兆瓦時不到30歐元漲至300歐元(299美元)以上--再加上歐洲的經濟指標也在亮紅燈，更多能源的價格也會受到調整。
That prospect is enough to drive economists to despair.
這種前景足以讓經濟學家感到絕望。
Politicians want to protect voters from big bills, but also need to cut energy use, so as to avoid blackouts and reduce Russia’s oil-and-gas revenues.
政客們希望保護選民免受巨額賬單的影響，但也需要減少能源消耗，以避免停電并減少俄羅斯的石油和天然氣收入。
Price caps help voters, but do so inefficiently and reduce the incentive to cut energy use.
設定價格上限是能幫助到選民，但效率很低，而且還會降低人們減少能源消耗的積極性。
Until recently, however, economists would have said that their impact on fuel consumption was minor and their impact on gas consumption uncertain.
然而，經濟學家們稱，設定價格上限對燃料消耗的影響微乎其微，對汽油消耗的影響也不能確定，直到最近他們才改口。
A body of research had found that consumers were largely unresponsive to higher petrol prices: they need to drive to work, and will do so even if expensive.
以往有大量研究發現，消費者對油價上漲基本沒什么反應：他們需要開車上班，即使油價很高也會開。
In this analysis, capping prices would not make a huge difference to energy consumption.
這種分析表明，限制價格不會對能源消耗產生多大影響。
Yet a new batch of studies have overturned the conventional view, suggesting prices really do matter.
然而，一批新的研究推翻了傳統觀點，表明價格確實有重大影響。
The difference reflects a change in research methods.
這種差異反映了研究方法的變化。
The earlier generation of studies analysed aggregate data, such as weekly sales and prices in a region, not demand from individual consumers or even driving patterns.
前一代研究分析的是總體數據，例如一個地區每周的銷售額和價格，而不是單個消費者的需求，甚至是駕駛模式。
This is a problem because crucial information gets lost when aggregating data.
這之所以是個問題，是因為在聚合數據時會丟失關鍵信息。
A mild increase in the weekly average price could hide a drop at the start of the week.
哪怕是每周平均價格的小幅上漲都可能會掩蓋一周開始時的下跌。
If that drop encourages more demand, an aggregate analysis might find that a higher price leads to more consumption, not less.
如果這個下跌鼓勵了更多的需求，那么綜合分析得出的結論可能就會是，更高的價格不會抑制消費，反而會促進消費。
And prices at the pump are not set in isolation.
加油站的價格也不是獨立設定的。
They respond to demand, making the price-demand relationship two-way.
而是隨需求變動，使得價格與需求互相影響。
Disentangling this is tricky.
解決這一問題并不容易。
More recent research analysing micro data has produced striking results.
更多分析微觀數據的最新研究已經產生了不同于以往的結果。
To assess how consumers react to higher petrol prices, Laurence Levin of Visa, a payments firm, and co-authors looked at daily card transactions from 243 American cities in the late 2000s.
為了評估消費者對汽油價格上漲的反應，支付公司Visa的勞倫斯·萊文和其合著者研究了本世紀頭十年末美國243個城市的每日信用卡交易情況。
They found a sizeable response.
他們發現汽油價格上漲在當時引起了相當大的反響。
For a 10% rise in petrol prices, consumption fell by about 3%.
汽油價格上漲10%，就會導致消費量下降約3%。
They also showed that, if they had used aggregate data, they would have concluded there had been a much smaller drop.
他們還表明，如果他們當時研究的是總體數據，結論中的降幅要小得多。
Christopher Knittel of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Shinsuke Tanaka of Tufts University used even more granular data, looking at a Japanese fuel-economy app, and found similar results with one extra detail: drivers not only responded to higher prices by driving less, they also drove more carefully to save fuel.
麻省理工學院的克里斯托弗·尼特爾和塔夫茨大學的田中信介使用了更精細的數據，他們研究了日本的一款燃油經濟性應用程序，得出的結果與之前相似，但多了一個細節：油價更高時，司機不僅會少開車，還會為了省油在開車時更加小心。
