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These tailwinds have turned.
但這些順風已經轉向了。
Covid-19 messed up supply chains; war and sabre-rattling are undermining globalisation.
新冠肺炎擾亂了供應鏈；戰爭和武力威脅正在削弱全球化進程。
Manoj Pradhan, formerly of Morgan Stanley, points out that China’s working-age population has peaked.
曾就職于摩根士丹利的馬諾杰·普拉丹指出，中國的勞動年齡人口已經達到頂峰。
Jeremy Grantham, a bearish hedge-fund investor, fears that the switch to renewables will be slow and costly, and that lower investment in fossil-fuel production will make it hard for energy firms to ramp up supply, increasing the risk of energy-price spikes.
看空對沖基金的投資者杰里米·格蘭瑟姆擔心，向可再生能源的轉變會費時又費錢，化石燃料生產投資減少將使能源公司難以增加供應，從而增加能源價格飆升的風險。
All this, the structuralists argue, means the current inflation shock is likely to be the first of many: central bankers will be playing whack-a-mole for a while yet.
結構主義者辯稱，這一切意味著，當前的通脹沖擊很可能是許多沖擊中的第一個：央行官員們還得再打一會兒地鼠。
Recurrent inflation would upend 20 years of portfolio-management strategy.
反復出現的通脹將顛覆20年來的投資組合管理策略。
If the correlation between stocks and bonds shifts from -0.5 to +0.5 the volatility of a “60/40” portfolio increases by around 20%.
如果股票和債券之間的相關系數從-0.5變成+0.5，“60/40”投資組合的波動率就會增加20%左右。
In a bid to avoid being wrong-footed once again, investors are updating their plans.
為了避免再次手足無措，投資者正在更新他們的計劃。
As Barry Gill of UBS’s asset-management arm puts it, the task is “to realign your portfolio around this new reality”.
正如瑞銀資產管理部門的巴里·吉爾所說，要做的任務是“圍繞這一新的現實情況重新調整投資組合”。
What assets will allow investors to sleep soundly in this new reality?
什么樣的資產才能讓投資者在這種新的現實情況下睡得安穩？
Cryptocurrencies once looked like an interesting hedge, but this year they have fallen and risen in lockstep with stocks.
加密貨幣曾經看起來像是一種有趣的對沖，但今年它們的漲跌與股市同步。
A recent paper by KKR, a private asset-management firm, argues, perhaps unsurprisingly, that illiquid alternatives, like private equity and credit, are a good way to diversify.
私人資產管理公司KKR最近的一篇論文認為，私募股權和信貸等非流動性的替代選擇是擴大業務范圍的好方法，這或許并不令人意外。
But that may be an illusion: illiquid assets are rarely marked-to-market, and are exposed to the same underlying economic forces as stocks and bonds.
但這可能是一種錯覺：非流動性資產很少按市值計價，可能受到的經濟力量影響還與股票和債券相同。
There are other options.
還有其他選擇。
AQR suggests stock-picking strategies where success has little to do with broader economic conditions, such as “long-short” equity investing (going long on one firm and short on another).
AQR建議采用幾乎不依靠整體經濟狀況就能成功的選股策略，例如“多空”股票投資(即做多一家公司，做空另一家公司)。
Meanwhile, commodities are the natural choice for those worried about a disorderly green transition, since a basket of them appears to be uncorrelated with stocks and bonds over long periods.
與此同時，對于那些擔心無序綠色轉型的人來說，大宗商品是自然而然的選擇，因為從長期來看，一籃子大宗商品似乎與股票和債券無關。
In the search for new ways to minimise risk, investors dreaming of high returns will have to get creative.
在尋找將風險降至最低的新方法時，夢想高回報的投資者將必須發揮創造力。
That, at least, should tire them out by the end of the day.
總之，這應該至少會讓他們筋疲力盡。
