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Bernanke v Chancellor: Duelling books reveal the clashes between central bankers and their critics
伯南克vs錢塞勒：二人著作之間的競爭揭示了央行官員與其批評者之間的沖突
The Price of Time. By Edward Chancellor.
《時間的代價》愛德華·錢塞勒著。
21st Century Monetary Policy. By Ben Bernanke.
《21世紀的貨幣政策》本·伯南克著。
There is a particular kind of critic of central banks who says that setting interest rates—and especially setting them low—is an unwarranted interference with the free market.
有一種批評央行的人說，設定利率--尤其是將利率設定在較低水平--是對自由市場的不必要干預。
In a system of paper (and electronic) currency, however, policymakers have no choice but to set what economists call a “nominal anchor”, a peg that determines the value of money.
然而，在紙幣(和電子貨幣)體系中，政策制定者別無選擇，只能設定經濟學家所說的“名義錨”，即決定貨幣價值的限定值。
Decades of theory and evidence lie behind the modern approach of pegging interest rates with the ultimate goal of controlling inflation.
將利率與控制通脹這一最終目標掛鉤的現代方法背后，是數十年的理論和依據。
Yet nominal anchors are inevitably somewhat arbitrary because paper money has no inherent value.
然而，由于紙幣沒有內在價值，名義錨必然會有些武斷。
The critics who label as artificial the low interest rates that have prevailed in the world economy in recent decades must therefore answer the question: low relative to what?
因此，給近幾十年來世界經濟中普遍存在的低利率貼上“人為”標簽的批評者必須回答一個問題：相對于什么低？
“The Price of Time” is the answer of Edward Chancellor, a historian and financier who has written a book by that name.
“時間的代價”是歷史學家兼金融家愛德華·錢塞勒的回答，他曾以這個名字寫了一本書。
Humans prefer jam today to jam tomorrow.
比起明天的空頭支票，人類更喜歡今天的真金白銀。
Interest rates are the reward for deferring gratification, for renting out money that could have been spent today.
利率是對延遲滿足的回報，是把本可以花在今天的錢租出去的回報。
When rates fall too low, grave consequences follow: financial instability, higher inequality and pain for savers.
利率降得太低時，嚴重后果就會隨之而來：金融不穩定、不平等加劇和儲戶的痛苦。
As he makes his case, Mr Chancellor’s panoptic survey of the history of interest, and what classical economists said about it, will not fail to dazzle.
在闡述自己的觀點時，錢塞勒對利息歷史的全面調查，以及古典經濟學家對此的看法，一定會令人眼花繚亂。
The argument, however, is seriously flawed.
然而，這一論點存在嚴重缺陷。
To see why, look to “21st Century Monetary Policy” by Ben Bernanke, who led America’s Federal Reserve through the global financial crisis from 2006-14 (and a fool in Mr Chancellor’s narrative).
要了解其中的原因，就看看本·伯南克的《21世紀的貨幣政策》。伯南克在2006-2014年期間領導美聯儲度過了全球金融危機(而在錢塞勒的敘述中，他是個傻瓜)。
His book is partly a historical account of the past half-century or so of policymaking at the Fed and partly a study of the effectiveness and desirability of unconventional monetary tools, such as quantitative easing, that have grown in importance after the crisis.
他的書有一部分是對過去半個世紀左右美聯儲政策制定的歷史描述，還有一部分是對非常規貨幣工具的有效性和合意性的研究，例如量化寬松這些在危機后變得越來越重要的工具。
For the likes of Mr Bernanke, the ultimate determinant of interest rates is the global balance between savings and investment which, over time, exerts a magnetic pull on central bankers trying to hit inflation targets.
對于伯南克這樣的人來說，利率的最終決定因素是全球儲蓄和投資之間的平衡，隨著時間的推移，這種平衡會對試圖實現通脹目標的央行官員產生磁鐵般的吸引力。
Rates have been low in part because desired savings have risen as societies have aged.
利率一直很低，部分原因是隨著社會老齡化，人們希望有更多儲蓄。
It was Mr Bernanke who, in 2005, suggested that a “global saving glut” might have been weighing on global rates.
正是伯南克在2005年暗示，“全球儲蓄過?！笨赡苷谕侠廴蚶?。
Mr Bernanke’s framework is more compelling than Mr Chancellor’s, as low or even negative interest rates can co-exist with humanity’s natural short-termism.
伯南克的框架比錢塞勒的更有說服力，因為低利率甚至負利率可以與人性天生的短期主義共存。
Suppose someone has a wage income of 100 in their working life and zero in retirement.
假設某人的工資為100美元，退休時沒有收入。
Though they may not target a 50/50 split, they will save to avoid penury.
盡管這類人的目標可能不是花一半存一半，他們也會存點錢以免之后陷入貧困。
Lots of people building up a nest-egg—even one that is small relative to their working incomes—creates an imbalance that can, as a result of market forces, push rates lower than their discount rates.
許多人存養老金這種現象--即使存下來的錢相對于他們的工資來說很少--造成了一種失衡，由于市場力量的作用，這種失衡可能會導致利率低于其貼現率。
“Justice is violated when lenders receive little or nothing,” Mr Chancellor writes.
“貸方獲利很少或沒有獲利時，公正就受到了侵犯，”錢塞勒寫道。
He might as well rage against a population pyramid.
他不妨對人口金字塔大發雷霆。
譯文由可可原創，僅供學習交流使用，未經許可請勿轉載。
