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Bartleby: When to trust your gut
巴托比：何時該相信直覺
Deliberation is not always the best option
深思熟慮并不總是最佳選項
Humans have been honed over millions of years of evolution to respond to certain situations without thinking too hard.
經過數百萬年的進化，人類已經被磨練得可以在不費力思考的情況下對某些情況做出反應。
If your ancestors spotted movement in the undergrowth, they would run first and grunt questions later.
我們的祖先發現灌木叢中有動靜時，都會先跑起來，然后再咕噥著問問題。
At the same time, the capacity to analyse and to plan is part of what distinguishes people from other animals.
然而，人類與其他動物的一個區別就是，人類有分析和計劃的能力。
The question of when to trust your gut and when to test your assumptions—whether to think fast or slow, in the language of Daniel Kahneman, a psychologist—matters in the office as much as it does in the savannah.
什么時候該相信直覺，什么時候該驗證假設--用心理學家丹尼爾·卡內曼的話來說，是快思考還是慢思考--這個問題在職場上，和在大草原上一樣重要。
Deliberative thinking is the hallmark of a well-managed workplace.
深思熟慮是工作場所管理有方的標志。
Strategic overhauls and budget discussions are built on rounds of meetings, memos, formulas and presentations.
一輪輪會議、備忘錄、方案和演示是進行戰略改革和預算討論的基礎。
Processes are increasingly designed to stamp out instinctive responses.
為了杜絕本能反應，有越來越多流程被設計出來。
From blind screening of job applicants to using “red-teaming” techniques to pick apart a firm’s plans, rigour trumps reflex.
小到盲選求職者，大到使用“紅隊策略”來打磨公司的計劃，嚴謹都勝過本能反應。
Yet instinct also has its place.
不過，本能也有用武之地。
Some decisions are more connected to emotional responses and inherently less tractable to analysis.
有些判斷就更多用到情緒反應，本質上難以通過分析下決斷。
Does a marketing campaign capture the essence of your company, say, or would this person work well with other people in a team?
比如，判斷營銷活動是否充分體現了公司的本質，或是看一個人能否與團隊中的其他人合作良好？
In sticky customer-service situations, intuition is often a better guide to how to behave than a script.
在棘手的客戶服務情況下，直覺往往比腳本更能指導如何行事。
Gut instincts can also be improved (call it “probiotic management”).
直覺能力也能夠得到提高(可以稱之為“益生菌管理”)。
Plenty of research has shown that intuition becomes more unerring with experience.
大量研究表明，隨著經驗的積累，直覺會變得更加準確。
In one well-known experiment, conducted in 2012, volunteers were asked to assess whether a selection of designer handbags were counterfeit or real.
在2012年的一項著名實驗中，志愿者被要求判斷一些名牌手袋的真偽。
Some were instructed to operate on instinct and others to deliberate over their decision.
實驗要求一些人憑直覺判斷，其他人則要深思熟慮后再做決定。
Intuition worked better for those who owned at least three designer handbags; indeed, it outperformed analysis.
對于至少擁有三個名牌手袋的人來說，依照直覺判斷的正確率更高；事實上，直覺比分析更準確。
The more expert you become, the better your instincts tend to be.
越專業，直覺往往就越準確。
However, the real reason to embrace fast thinking is that it is, well, fast.
但是，選擇快思考的真正原因就是：快。
Instinctive decision-making is often the only way to get through the day.
依照本能做決策往往是熬過一天的唯一方法。
Researchers at Cornell University once estimated that people make over 200 decisions a day about food alone.
康奈爾大學的研究人員曾經估算出，人們每天光是思考吃什么就會做出200多個決定。
The workplace is nothing but a succession of choices, a few big and many small: what to prioritise, when to intervene, whom to avoid in the lifts and, now, where to work each day.
構成職場的只不過是一連串選擇，幾個重大的加上許多個微小的：優先考慮什么，何時干預，在電梯里避開誰，以及現如今對于工作地點的選擇。
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